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Factors influencing community flood resilience: Delphi insights
Ekundayo, Olutayo
Ekundayo, Olutayo
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2025-09-04
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Abstract
Purpose
This research sought out to develop valid indicators influencing community flood resilience (CFR) in socially diverse communities, drawing on a combination of evidence from the body of knowledge and from a Delphi process involving key flood risk stakeholders.
Methodology
Recognising the conceptual ambiguity and measurement challenges surrounding resilience, the research adopts a participatory, iterative design to generate and validate meaningful indicators. A modified Delphi method was employed, beginning with a synthesis of 79 indicators across six dimensions and followed by three structured rounds involving community leaders, practitioners, and experts. The approach combined semi-structured interviews and Likert-based surveys to prioritise indicators through statistical consensus and qualitative justification.
Findings
Findings reveal 17 new indicators (See Table 2) generated from the Delphi phase 1 semi-structured interview. While consensus was achieved on majority of these new indicators, five indicators (E4, E5, G1, H1, and I2) failed to meet the consensus threshold of mean ≥ 3.0 and variance ≤ 0.9 at the Delphi phase 2. At the third and final phase, only one indicator (E5) still failed to meet the consensus requirement. The process highlighted divergent views around wealth, migration trend, and community approval, affirming the importance of local context in resilience assessment.
Originality/value
Integrating community perspectives with expert input, the research offers a replicable, co-produced approach for generating and validating CFR indicators that is both rigorous and adaptable.
Link to themes
It advances inclusive resilience planning aligned with Sustainable Development Goal 11, contributing to the broader themes of green innovation, sustainability, and socially inclusive policy design.
Citation
Olatunji, E., Pathirage, C., Proverbs, D., Suresh, S. and Ekundayo, O. (2025) Factors influencing community flood resilience: Delphi insights, in Subashini, S., Pillai, P. & Morgan, J. (eds.) Beyond Futures - Festival of Research & Innovation 2025. Wolverhampton, University of Wolverhampton, pp. 300-307.
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Conference contribution
Language
en
Description
© 2025 The Authors. Published by the University of Wolverhampton. Available under a Creative Commons licence.
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ISSN
2634-2014