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Temperature and humidity associated with increases in tuberculosis notifications: a time-series study in Hong Kong
Xu, M Li, Y Liu, B Chen, R Sheng, L Yan, S Chen, H Hou, J Yuan, L Ke, L
Xu, M
Li, Y
Liu, B
Chen, R
Sheng, L
Yan, S
Chen, H
Hou, J
Yuan, L
Ke, L
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Epub Date
Issue Date
2020-12-28
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Abstract
Previous studies have revealed associations of meteorological factors with tuberculosis (TB) cases. However, few studies have examined their lag effects on TB cases. This study was aimed to analyse nonlinear lag effects of meteorological factors on the number of TB notifications in Hong Kong. Using a 22-year consecutive surveillance data in Hong Kong, we examined the association of monthly average temperature and relative humidity with temporal dynamics of the monthly number of TB notifications using a distributed lag nonlinear models combined with a Poisson regression. The relative risks (RRs) of TB notifications were >1.15 as monthly average temperatures were between 16.3 and 17.3 °C at lagged 13-15 months, reaching the peak risk of 1.18 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.35) when it was 16.8 °C at lagged 14 months. The RRs of TB notifications were >1.05 as relative humidities of 60.0-63.6% at lagged 9-11 months expanded to 68.0-71.0% at lagged 12-17 months, reaching the highest risk of 1.06 (95% CI 1.01-1.11) when it was 69.0% at lagged 13 months. The nonlinear and delayed effects of average temperature and relative humidity on TB epidemic were identified, which may provide a practical reference for improving the TB warning system.
Citation
Xu M et al (2021). Temperature and humidity associated with increases in tuberculosis notifications: a timeseries study in Hong Kong. Epidemiology and Infection 149, e8, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1017/ S0950268820003040
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PubMed ID
33436107 (pubmed)
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Journal article
Language
en
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© 2020 The Authors. Published by Cambridge University Press. This is an open access article available under a Creative Commons licence.
The published version can be accessed at the following link on the publisher’s website: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268820003040[Opens in a new window]
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ISSN
0950-2688
EISSN
1469-4409
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Licence for published version: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International