A prospective evaluation of the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator as a predictor of complications for breast surgery

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The infection rates for operative management of breast cancer are often unpredictable and higher than average for a clean surgical procedure (0.8% and 28%). We aimed to assess the effectiveness of the American College of Surgeons (ACS) Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC), a preoperative scoring system to calculate the risk of surgical site infection (SSI) and serious complications following breast surgery. METHODS: Prospective risk scoring using the SRC on 213 patients in the preoperative clinic and the incidence of SSI and serious complications within 30 days postoperatively was prospectively collected. RESULTS: The overall SSI rate in our sample was 5% (n=11/210 patients). For a one-unit increase in SRC score, the odds of having SSI increased by a factor of 1.88 (95% CI 1.33 to 2.74). Odds of developing SSI were higher in patients with high Body Mass Index (OR 1.25; 95% 1.13 to 1.40) and American Society of Anesthesiologists score 3 (OR 11.54; 95% CI 2.98 to 43.65). The odds of developing an SSI were ∼19 times higher if a patient had an SRC score >3.0 versus those with an SRC score <3.0. Only 3% (n=4) of patients who had an SRC score of <3.0 experienced SSI, compared with 33% (n=7) for those with a risk score of >3.0. Out of 210 patients, 9 had serious complications (4.2%). CONCLUSIONS: ACS SRC Score of more than 3 was associated with a higher likelihood of SSI. SRC was able to predict the risk of SSI and serious complications and can be used preoperatively for identification and risk minimisation.