Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorAli, MGM
dc.contributor.authorIbrahim, MM
dc.contributor.authorEl Baroudy, A
dc.contributor.authorFullen, Michael A.
dc.contributor.authorOmar, ESH
dc.contributor.authorDing, Z
dc.contributor.authorKheir, AMS
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-30T10:23:42Z
dc.date.available2020-07-30T10:23:42Z
dc.date.issued2020-04-29
dc.identifier.citationAli, M.G.M., Ibrahim, M.M., El Baroudy, A. et al. (2020) Climate change impact and adaptation on wheat yield, water use and water use efficiency at North Nile Delta. Frontiers of Earth Science (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-019-0806-4en
dc.identifier.issn2095-0195en
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11707-019-0806-4en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2436/623395
dc.descriptionThis is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Springer in Frontiers of Earth Science on 29/04/2020, available online: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-019-0806-4 The accepted version of the publication may differ from the final published version.en
dc.description.abstract© 2020, Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. Investigation of climate change impacts on food security has become a global hot spot. Even so, efforts to mitigate these issues in arid regions have been insufficient. Thus, in this paper, further research is discussed based on data obtained from various crop and climate models. Two DSSATcrop models (CMs) (CERESWheat and N-Wheat) were calibrated with two wheat cultivars (Gemiza9 and Misr1). A baseline simulation (1981-2010) was compared with different scenarios of simulations using three Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the 2030s, 2050s and 2080s. Probable impacts of climate change were assessed using the GCMs and CMs under the high emission Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). Results predicted decreased wheat grain yields by a mean of 8.7%, 11.4% and 13.2% in the 2030s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, relative to the baseline yield. Negative impacts of climatic change are probable, despite some uncertainties within the GCMs (i. e., 2.1%, 5.0% and 8.0%) and CMs (i.e., 2.2%, 6.0% and 9.2%). Changing the planting date with a scenario of plus or minus 5 or 10 days from the common practice was assessed as a potentially effective adaptation option, which may partially offset the negative impacts of climate change. Delaying the sowing date by 10 days (from 20 November to 30 November) proved the optimum scenario and decreased further reduction in wheat yields resulting from climate change to 5.2%, 6.8% and 8.5% in the 2030s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, compared with the 20 November scenario. The planting 5-days earlier scenario showed a decreased impact on climate change adaptation. However, the 10-days early planting scenario increased yield reduction under projected climate change. The cultivar Misr1 was more resistant to rising temperature than Gemiza9. Despite the negative impacts of projected climate change on wheat production, water use efficiency would slightly increase. The ensemble of multi-model estimated impacts and adaptation uncertainties of climate change can assist decision-makers in planning climate adaptation strategies.en
dc.formatapplication/pdfen
dc.languageen
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLCen
dc.relation.urlhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11707-019-0806-4en
dc.subjectDSSAT modelsen
dc.subjectclimate changeen
dc.subjectscenariosen
dc.subjectadaptationen
dc.subjectwater use efficiencyen
dc.titleClimate change impact and adaptation on wheat yield, water use and water use efficiency at North Nile Deltaen
dc.typeJournal articleen
dc.identifier.eissn2095-0209
dc.identifier.journalFrontiers of Earth Scienceen
dc.date.updated2020-07-30T07:34:50Z
dc.date.accepted2019-11-04
rioxxterms.funderUniversity of Wolverhamptonen
rioxxterms.identifier.projectUOW30072020MFen
rioxxterms.versionAMen
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2021-04-29en
dc.description.versionPublished version
refterms.dateFCD2020-07-30T08:21:32Z
refterms.versionFCDAM


Files in this item

Thumbnail
Name:
Ali_et_al_Climate_change_impac ...
Size:
989.1Kb
Format:
PDF

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/