Impacts of rising temperature, carbon dioxide concentration and sea level on wheat production in North Nile delta
Name:
Publisher version
View Source
Access full-text PDFOpen Access
View Source
Check access options
Check access options
Authors
Kheir, A.El Baroudy, A.A.
Aiad, M.A.
Zoghdan, M.G.
Abd El-Aziz, M.A.
Ali, M.G.M.
Fullen, Michael A.
Issue Date
2018-10-16
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Climate change poses a serious threat to arid and low elevation coastal zones. Kafrelsheikh governorate, as a large agricultural and coastal region on the Egyptian North Nile Delta, is one of the most vulnerable areas to higher temperature and global sea level rise. Two DSSAT wheat models (CERES and N-Wheat) were calibrated using a local cultivar (Misr3) grown under irrigated conditions in Egypt. Experimental data of two successive growing seasons during 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 were used for calibration using different treatments of irrigation, planting dates and fertilization. Both models simulated the phenology and wheat yield well, with root mean square deviation of b10%, and d-index N 0.80. Climate change sensitivity analysis showed that rising temperature by 1 °C to 4 °C decreased wheat yield by 17.6%. However, elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased yield and could overtake some of the negative temperature responses. Sea level rise by 2.0 m will reduce the extent of agricultural land on the North Nile Delta of Egypt by ~60% creating an additional challenge to wheat production in this region.Citation
Kheir AMS., El Baroudy A., Aiad MA., Zoghdan MG., Abd El-Aziz MA., Ali MGM., Fullen MA. (2019) ‘Impacts of rising temperature, carbon dioxide concentration and sea level on wheat production in North Nile delta’, Science of The Total Environment, 651 (Part 2) pp. 3161-3173. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.209Publisher
Elsevier B.VJournal
Science of the Total EnvironmentType
Journal articleLanguage
enISSN
0048-9697Sponsors
Agricultural Research Center, Egyptae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.209
Scopus Count
Collections
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/