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    Testing the assumptions of crime linkage with stranger sex offenses: a more ecologically-valid study

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    Authors
    Slater, Chelsea
    Woodhams, Jessica
    Hamilton-Giachritsis, Catherine
    Issue Date
    2014-12-19
    
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    Abstract
    An increasing amount of research has been conducted on crime linkage, a practice that has already been presented as expert evidence in some countries; however it is questionable whether standards of admissibility, applied in some jurisdictions, have been achieved (e.g., the Daubert criteria). Much research has assessed the two basic assumptions underpinning this practice: that offenders are consistent in the way they commit their crimes and that offenders commit their crimes in a relatively distinctive manner. While studies of these assumptions with stranger sex offenses exist, they are problematic for two reasons: (1) small samples (usually < 30 series), and (2) samples consisting solely of serial offenses. The current study improved on past research through the use of a much larger dataset (N=50 series, 194 offenses; and N= 50 one-off offenses) and by sampling the offenses of both serial and one-off sex offenders, thereby representing a more ecologically valid test of the assumptions. The two assumptions were tested simultaneously by assessing how accurately 365 linked crime pairs could be differentiated from 29,281 unlinked crime pairs through the use of Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation logistic regression followed by Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis. An excellent level of predictive accuracy was achieved providing support for the assumptions underpinning crime linkage.
    Citation
    Slater, C., Woodhams, J., Hamilton-Giachritsis, C. (2014) 'Testing the Assumptions of Crime Linkage with Stranger Sex Offenses: A More Ecologically-Valid Study', Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology, 30 (4) pp. 261-273
    Publisher
    Springer
    Journal
    Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/2436/620750
    DOI
    10.1007/s11896-014-9160-3
    Additional Links
    http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11896-014-9160-3
    Type
    Journal article
    Language
    en
    ISSN
    0882-0783
    1936-6469
    Sponsors
    University of Birmingham
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1007/s11896-014-9160-3
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    Faculty of Education, Health and Wellbeing

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