Modelling the Supply and Demand for Construction and Building Services Skills in the Black Country

Abstract

Evidence seems to suggest that with 14 years of unbroken economic growth, the UK’s construction and building services sector is experiencing severe skills crisis of between 40 – 50 per cent retention rate and declining numbers of entrant trainees. More importantly, the level of this severity varies with sub regional and regional peculiarities. To date, most studies on this area have focused on increasing the population of the existing pools of labour rather than harnessing existing ones. Adopting the concept of multiskilling, current techniques of evaluating skills crisis were critically reviewed. While there has been some empirically beneficial application of this concept in the US, it is a rarity in the literature to find previous works on multiskilling in UK’s construction and building services sector. Adopting an action research approach, a Project Steering Group of industry stakeholders served as a research ‘think tank’ for validating empirical results, and in line with the theory of construct validity, instruments of survey were designed and operationalized in a pilot and major surveys of supply and demand sides’ target groups. Employing the relative index ranking technique, the forecast implications of UK’s economic stability are ‘real’ and a demand led system is prescribed as a tentative ‘cushion’ for sustainable but immediate redress. A time series data for the period 1961 – 2004 is explored and systematised quantitative demand led models for evaluating construction output based on aggregated and disaggregated manpower attributes are developed using principal component regression (PCR). Aggregating these models, it is deduced that multiskilling could help redress skills shortage in the long term. A new trade equilibrium framework and a multiskilled focused partnership in training programme are prescribed with response strategies and recommendations.