The research production of nations and departments: A statistical model for the share of publications

2.50
Hdl Handle:
http://hdl.handle.net/2436/620742
Title:
The research production of nations and departments: A statistical model for the share of publications
Authors:
Thelwall, Mike ( 0000-0001-6065-205X )
Abstract:
Policy makers and managers sometimes assess the share of research produced by a group (country, department, institution). This takes the form of the percentage of publications in a journal, field or broad area that has been published by the group. This quantity is affected by essentially random influences that obscure underlying changes over time and differences between groups. A model of research production is needed to help identify whether differences between two shares indicate underlying differences. This article introduces a simple production model for indicators that report the share of the world’s output in a journal or subject category, assuming that every new article has the same probability to be authored by a given group. With this assumption, confidence limits can be calculated for the underlying production capability (i.e., probability to publish). The results of a time series analysis of national contributions to 36 large monodisciplinary journals 1996-2016 are broadly consistent with this hypothesis. Follow up tests of countries and institutions in 26 Scopus subject categories support the conclusions but highlight the importance of ensuring consistent subject category coverage.
Publisher:
Elsevier
Journal:
Journal of Informetrics
Issue Date:
Nov-2017
URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/2436/620742
Additional Links:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/17511577/10?sdc=1
Type:
Article
Language:
en
ISSN:
1751-1577
Appears in Collections:
Statistical Cybermetrics Research Group

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorThelwall, Mikeen
dc.date.accessioned2017-10-10T13:29:31Z-
dc.date.available2017-10-10T13:29:31Z-
dc.date.issued2017-11-
dc.identifier.issn1751-1577en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2436/620742-
dc.description.abstractPolicy makers and managers sometimes assess the share of research produced by a group (country, department, institution). This takes the form of the percentage of publications in a journal, field or broad area that has been published by the group. This quantity is affected by essentially random influences that obscure underlying changes over time and differences between groups. A model of research production is needed to help identify whether differences between two shares indicate underlying differences. This article introduces a simple production model for indicators that report the share of the world’s output in a journal or subject category, assuming that every new article has the same probability to be authored by a given group. With this assumption, confidence limits can be calculated for the underlying production capability (i.e., probability to publish). The results of a time series analysis of national contributions to 36 large monodisciplinary journals 1996-2016 are broadly consistent with this hypothesis. Follow up tests of countries and institutions in 26 Scopus subject categories support the conclusions but highlight the importance of ensuring consistent subject category coverage.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherElsevieren
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/17511577/10?sdc=1en
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/*
dc.subjectScientometricsen
dc.subjectBibliometricsen
dc.subjectResearch productionen
dc.subjectPrediction intervals;en
dc.titleThe research production of nations and departments: A statistical model for the share of publicationsen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.identifier.journalJournal of Informetricsen
dc.date.accepted2017-10-
rioxxterms.funderInternalen
rioxxterms.identifier.projectUoW101017MTen
rioxxterms.versionAMen
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttps://creativecommons.org/CC BY-NC-ND 4.0en
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2018-11-01en
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