Confidence intervals for normalised citation counts: Can they delimit underlying research capability?

2.50
Hdl Handle:
http://hdl.handle.net/2436/620668
Title:
Confidence intervals for normalised citation counts: Can they delimit underlying research capability?
Authors:
Thelwall, Mike ( 0000-0001-6065-205X )
Abstract:
Normalised citation counts are routinely used to assess the average impact of research groups or nations. There is controversy over whether confidence intervals for them are theoretically valid or practically useful. In response, this article introduces the concept of a group’s underlying research capability to produce impactful research. It then investigates whether confidence intervals could delimit the underlying capability of a group in practice. From 123120 confidence interval comparisons for the average citation impact of the national outputs of ten countries within 36 individual large monodisciplinary journals, moderately fewer than 95% of subsequent indicator values fall within 95% confidence intervals from prior years, with the percentage declining over time. This is consistent with confidence intervals effectively delimiting the research capability of a group, although it does not prove that this is the cause of the results. The results are unaffected by whether internationally collaborative articles are included.
Publisher:
Elsevier
Journal:
Journal of Informetrics
Issue Date:
Feb-2018
URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/2436/620668
Additional Links:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/17511577/11?sdc=1
Type:
Article
Language:
en
ISSN:
1751-1577
Appears in Collections:
Statistical Cybermetrics Research Group

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorThelwall, Mikeen
dc.date.accessioned2017-09-19T13:52:15Z-
dc.date.available2017-09-19T13:52:15Z-
dc.date.issued2018-02-
dc.identifier.issn1751-1577en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2436/620668-
dc.description.abstractNormalised citation counts are routinely used to assess the average impact of research groups or nations. There is controversy over whether confidence intervals for them are theoretically valid or practically useful. In response, this article introduces the concept of a group’s underlying research capability to produce impactful research. It then investigates whether confidence intervals could delimit the underlying capability of a group in practice. From 123120 confidence interval comparisons for the average citation impact of the national outputs of ten countries within 36 individual large monodisciplinary journals, moderately fewer than 95% of subsequent indicator values fall within 95% confidence intervals from prior years, with the percentage declining over time. This is consistent with confidence intervals effectively delimiting the research capability of a group, although it does not prove that this is the cause of the results. The results are unaffected by whether internationally collaborative articles are included.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherElsevieren
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/17511577/11?sdc=1en
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/*
dc.subjectCitation analysisen
dc.subjectconfidence intervalsen
dc.subjectresearch capacityen
dc.subjectresearch capabilityen
dc.titleConfidence intervals for normalised citation counts: Can they delimit underlying research capability?en
dc.typeArticleen
dc.identifier.journalJournal of Informetricsen
dc.date.accepted2017-09-
rioxxterms.funderInternalen
rioxxterms.identifier.projectUoW190917MTen
rioxxterms.versionAMen
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttps://creativecommons.org/CC BY-NC-ND 4.0en
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2019-02-01en
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